Splish splash

So the kids were pretty surprised they got walked at 5 AM in the morning. Usually the husband walks them but not until around 6 or 7.

I am probably too cynical to believe that Senator Dodd is retiring to spend more time with his family. The guy was most likely going to lose the election, he was (as ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee) a big part of the group that got us into this mess, he took advantage of his position in the Senate to get himself a sweetheart deal it appears, and no one who has been in the a position of power for close to four decades willingly gives up that power- unless of course that person knows some hammer is about to fall very hard on them.

The FOMC minutes came out today and it indicated that the Fed is split on whether or not to continue their QE program. It is scheduled to end in March but it may not. Many market participants took that to mean rates are most assuredly staying near zero for longer than expected. To that I would say I take it as an indictment that the Fed is all but admitting the "recovery" may be a lot more fragile than even they are willing to admit. It also seems like a very Japanese thing to do but I digress...

Something to keep in mind about the unemployment number in February: I was told approximately 1 million people will drop off the rolls of emergency benefits. That means U-6 will show an uptick solely because of that. It does not mean those people don't want to work but they are no longer counted by the government as looking for work- how fucked up is that?

You have to wonder why the government of Yemen seems to be getting really vocal about their opposition of the United States intervening directly in their nation in the fight against Al-Qaeda. I can only assume it mean there is a lot behind the scenes rumblings.

Of course there are now a bunch of lists of predictions for the coming year. Last count I made there are 58 different lists. the funny thing is the boss, I and the kid who sits next to me decided back in the beginning of December we as a trading desk would put together our own. I wrote up a bunch of them starting on December 7th. I find it eerie that some of the things I said could happen made it on to a couple of the other lists I have read (I have not gone through all 58 yet). Here they are:

Geithner out, Summers in, bonds react negatively

Bernake out

AIG goes into liquidation

EK files for bankruptcy- finally

Democrats get crushed in mid-term elections

Iran falls into civil war

Osama Bin Laden dies of kidney failure

Terror strike in the U.S. perpetrated by locally grown terrorists.

The government seizes GE Capital from GE

Double dip recession and with U-6 going over 20% it starts being called a depression

EU starts to fragment end result being only France, Germany and Nordic countries in it

Vikings win the Super Bowl

No health care bill is passed

Cap and trade is not passed

Some form of Glass-Stegall is reinstated

Citigroup is nationalized de jure and broken up

SAC shuts down for good of its own volition

U.S. troops are sent into Mexico to help stabilize it because of drug war

FHA goes into conservatorship ala FNM and FRE

I remember the comic book The Human Target and I now see that Fox is going to come out with it as a tv series. I am psyched about for it. I am even more psyched that Mark Valley is going to be the star.

I gave the kids baths tonight. They were so not happy with me, lol. Tomorrow night I'll brush the creatures of darkness out.