Wednesday, September 3, 2008

The summer is over but not the beach

Labor Day weekend the weather at the beach was amazing! It was sunny and warm all weekend. JP finally made it out to the beach. He really isn't a guest because he is an adult and doesn't need to be entertained so it was a welcome respite for the husband and me. He got out early Saturday night so we did not go tot tea but we did go to the Pavilion and see Junior. It was the first time I had been to the legendary dj's spinning. It was a blast! A mass of sweaty, muscly shirtless men all moving to the same beat out on Fire Island- seriously, it doesn't get any better than that.

The next morning- really afternoon since we did not get home until 4:30 AM- the husband and JP were seriously hurting. We ate breakfast at 1:15 in the afternoon. I had been up much earlier and gotten breakfast fixings and run into some friends. Apparently to my untrained ears Junior was not that great of a set. We spent the day lounging/recuperating next to the pool. The husband made a nice dinner for the three of us and then we had friends come over for a friendly game of pitch. JP had learned how to play just hours before and it was a blast. TK and one of his house mates the JM the dress maker joined us. The five of us then went to the local bar and had some drinks. It was early to bed for the three of us.

When we got home Monday evening we ran into this serious hottie. He is stunningly beautiful, lives in the building, drives a really nice car and has a girlfriend (since I saw no rings on either of their hands) who loved the kids and couldn't stop petting them.

Tuesday morning the boss relayed a story of how he and his kids saw a school of stingrays down the shore. We got into a discussion about what the proper name is for such a formation and it is called a fever if stingrays.

The USD is having a massive rally since it has been kicked in the teeth for the past six years. The thinking is because we are in a recession and the rest of the world is following us in so we are the best bet on a relative basis since the Fed's current interest rate regime is much more conducive to recovery whilst the ECB has not budged.

I would venture to say we are halfway through the credit crisis but now it is impacting the real economy in a negative way. The auto makers are crap. I read one time that the U.S. auto industry accounted for something like one in four of every jobs directly or indirectly. That is not the case these days but still they are a big chunk of jobs. My guess is F and/or GM will have to reorganize at some point.

I really wish the whole LEH story would play out. The problem is that LEH is forgetting the cardinal rule of valuation: Some thing is only worth what some one is willing to pay for it regardless of what the owner/seller thinks it is worth. Once they remember that rule they will most likely sell themselves or a stake in themselves at some huge discount which will cause a correlation of one in all asset classes on the way down and then we will be pretty damn close to the credit crisis being over.

Will be starting karate back up next week hoping to finish that off and get the black pants. Training for the upcoming sprint tri has not been great and the husband who snookered me into it is now backing out.

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