Thursday, July 21, 2011

It's not a pemanent condition...

Tuesday morning was the first time I've swum since the race.  It was actually not that bad getting back into the pool.  I swam a bit over 1400 yards and felt good.

Yesterday  the IMF came out and stated that Europe faces the risk of serious contagion if the whole Greece situation was not addressed.  Duh!  Thanks for the news flash Walter...

Something that is getting a lot of chatter/ink/spin currently is the whole idea of a eurobond.  Ok, in order for a eurobond to actually come into existence there needs to be some kind of European Ministry of Finance.  If there is one of those that implies there would have to be some kind of federal European government.  You cannot have a European federal government without the member states giving up sovereignty.  I am gonna bet that 3,000 years of history including the Treaty of Westphalia- will stand in the way of that.  I really don't see the European nations giving up their sovereignty especially since it would- highly likely- that Germany would end up in charge.  The two world wars I think have pretty much turned everyone off from that idea.  One of the firms I do business with yesterday was positing that you can have full fiscal union without political union.  No frackin' way can you.have fiscal union without political union- money and politics go hand in hand- always have and always will.

My bond friend pointed out to me there is no way they could get a eurobond done so quickly; as he said the plumbing is just not in place.  He estimated that it would take twenty years for it to actually be in place.  We then got into a discussion that a eurobond would be great and actually take care of a lot the issues.  He thinks that is the ultimate goal of some Eurocrats but I still bet on 3,000 years of history weighing on that happening.

So, today it seems like Greece will be entering a transitory default.  WTF?  All defaults are transitory.  No one stays in default permanently.  Default is default no matter what.  Just like being pregnant is being pregnant no matter what.   Hell, pregnancy is transitory too but it still means you've fucked- just like all the bond holders in Greece.

I am psyched to see Cowboys vs. Aliens.  I am also looking forward to Captain America.  

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