The weekend upstate with my fraternity brothers was a blast. I had not seen some of these guys in over 15 years. I did have some trepidation going up there but was really impressed with the sense of brotherhood. Not one guy had an issue with me being a big old homo. We drank a lot, ate a lot and I even took a swim in the lake sans bathing suit. As our host BB (the host) said "My 68 year old aunt is going to be all excited and talking about it for years." Her is the final count of what we went through in three days:
Final count:
2 bottles of Bailey’s
1 bottle Vodka
Lots of jack
1+ bottles rum
6 ish cases of beer
35 lbs wings
14lbs beef
4 lbs salmon
10 lbs elk and venison
2lbs cheese
4 dozen eggs
3lbs bacon
2 lbs sausage
3 lbs scrapple
2lbs coffee
4 bags chips
1 box crackers
3 dozen rolls
2 dozen bagels
½ face cord wood
Not one vegetable
God knows how many brain cells
Our host BB was in my pledge class with me, the president of our house our senior year and lived across the hall from me in the house. He is now a county D.A. and some of the horror stories about crimes in his county were very disheartening.
I saw the hot neighbor this morning and he held the elevator door for me but I was waiting for the husband so told him thanks but go ahead.
The humidity lately has been a pain in the ass for our painting. The new foyer is done though and 2/3 of the boys room too. All we have left is our bedroom and the living room.
Speaking of the boys room we have been trying to match the door handle and found it on the web. The only bad thing is it costs over $250! We are going to figure out something else to do that doesn't cost that much.
So the House voted down the bailout. That does not bode well in the short term for the tape but I went outside after the vote and saw that the world had not ended; people were still working, the deli was still selling iced coffee and the sun had not gone black. If worse comes to worse I can go become a pirate off the coast of Somalia and demand $20 million for ships I take.
WB- those damn shorts again! The stock was down ~85%. Oh wait- it can't be shorted. So does that mean stocks can still go down even though the government is trying to prevent free markets from working???
Today the tape was scary but let's keep things in prospective; Black Monday back in '87 the tape was down 22% or so. Today it was down barely one third of that. That gets to several things one should keep in mind. First, point moves are not the thing to focus on- percentage moves are what one should follow. Second turn off CNBC! Their main job is selling ads, not making you money. If you really feel the need to watch business news watch BBERG tv instead.
We also need to remember that Iran and North Korea are both still big issues and appear to still be pursuing nuclear arms and if they get them my guess is who voted yea or nay for the bailout really won't matter.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Uugghh I hate technology at times
So last night I stayed up and wrote an entry but for some reason it did not save to drafts and I lost the whole damn thing.
Work has kept me fairly discombobulated lately. So will try and go for a wide amount of info in this entry because I am off work tomorrow and travelling and won't be on line until Sunday at the soonest again.
Tuesday was Ragnar's birthday. His boyfriend also had some pieces of work in an art show down in Soho. This is only the second art show I have been to and it was much more different than the first one. It was definitely a scene. It was all I could do to exert my self control to not gape, gasp, stare or outright point a finger at some of the characters there. The free wine did not help any either.
After the show we went out for dinner and as Ragnar said the restaurant was "the bomb!" We gave Ragnar a nice pen for a gift and he will be getting his initials engraved on it.
I have been very haphazard on the gym this week. I only went once and that was to get some cardio done before I went to the art show.
Tonight I have back to school night for my oldest. After I get home for that I will be priming the new wall. Ideally the husband will get to painting it this weekend since I will not be around. I am off tomorrow and going up to my alma mater. It is sort of a mini reunion with a bunch of my fraternity brothers. I believe we will also be taking in a football game and stopping by the nouse to terrorize- I mean meet the undergrad brothers.
Speaking of my oldest he has been harassing me to get texting for his cell phone. His mother and I told him if he can get A's and B's for the entire school year he can get texting at the beginning of the summer.
There is a really hot guy who lives on our floor. The husband has been sharing the elevator with him in the mornings. Last night I finally met him in the elevator. I was running out to get to the hardware store to get paint. Someone was holding the elevator for me- it was our hot neighbor. JP is going to be house sitting for us in October- maybe he'll run into him...
I saw Full Lower Lip on the bus yesterday and again I think he smiled at me. First time I wrote it off as wishful thinking but this time I am not sure I imagined it...
I did not watch the President's speech last night. We instead watched a Fringe episode the we recorded on our DVR. Fringe is getting to be a good show. I am totally drawn into the Pattern and what it is trying to achieve.
Apparently the President tried to scare Congress into acting. I have to say he is pretty spot on. We are this close to seeing the entire economy disintegrate. Apportioning blame can be done later, right now we need to fix this. When major companies cannot access the corporate paper market we have a serious issue. The CP market is the true lifeblood of the economy. The TED spread is still way too high and the swap spread has never been where it is. LIBOR- whether it is accurate or not- is too high as well. I hope Congress can rise above the politics and do the right thing. I am reminded of a saying my dad uses all the time "Don't cut your nose off to spite your face."
Speaking of blame I think that when the autopsy is done years down the road the culprit will be the CDS market. I am not even sure we really need a CDS market but Wall Street created it and made tons of dough in it and now they are paying the extremely high price for it.
I also hope we follow the Swedish model of resolving this banking crisis and not the Japanese model. My guess is we will fall somewhere in between but closer to Sweden's example.
Work has kept me fairly discombobulated lately. So will try and go for a wide amount of info in this entry because I am off work tomorrow and travelling and won't be on line until Sunday at the soonest again.
Tuesday was Ragnar's birthday. His boyfriend also had some pieces of work in an art show down in Soho. This is only the second art show I have been to and it was much more different than the first one. It was definitely a scene. It was all I could do to exert my self control to not gape, gasp, stare or outright point a finger at some of the characters there. The free wine did not help any either.
After the show we went out for dinner and as Ragnar said the restaurant was "the bomb!" We gave Ragnar a nice pen for a gift and he will be getting his initials engraved on it.
I have been very haphazard on the gym this week. I only went once and that was to get some cardio done before I went to the art show.
Tonight I have back to school night for my oldest. After I get home for that I will be priming the new wall. Ideally the husband will get to painting it this weekend since I will not be around. I am off tomorrow and going up to my alma mater. It is sort of a mini reunion with a bunch of my fraternity brothers. I believe we will also be taking in a football game and stopping by the nouse to terrorize- I mean meet the undergrad brothers.
Speaking of my oldest he has been harassing me to get texting for his cell phone. His mother and I told him if he can get A's and B's for the entire school year he can get texting at the beginning of the summer.
There is a really hot guy who lives on our floor. The husband has been sharing the elevator with him in the mornings. Last night I finally met him in the elevator. I was running out to get to the hardware store to get paint. Someone was holding the elevator for me- it was our hot neighbor. JP is going to be house sitting for us in October- maybe he'll run into him...
I saw Full Lower Lip on the bus yesterday and again I think he smiled at me. First time I wrote it off as wishful thinking but this time I am not sure I imagined it...
I did not watch the President's speech last night. We instead watched a Fringe episode the we recorded on our DVR. Fringe is getting to be a good show. I am totally drawn into the Pattern and what it is trying to achieve.
Apparently the President tried to scare Congress into acting. I have to say he is pretty spot on. We are this close to seeing the entire economy disintegrate. Apportioning blame can be done later, right now we need to fix this. When major companies cannot access the corporate paper market we have a serious issue. The CP market is the true lifeblood of the economy. The TED spread is still way too high and the swap spread has never been where it is. LIBOR- whether it is accurate or not- is too high as well. I hope Congress can rise above the politics and do the right thing. I am reminded of a saying my dad uses all the time "Don't cut your nose off to spite your face."
Speaking of blame I think that when the autopsy is done years down the road the culprit will be the CDS market. I am not even sure we really need a CDS market but Wall Street created it and made tons of dough in it and now they are paying the extremely high price for it.
I also hope we follow the Swedish model of resolving this banking crisis and not the Japanese model. My guess is we will fall somewhere in between but closer to Sweden's example.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
The real end of the summer
We had the boys at the beach this weekend and it was the last time for the season. The weather was actually really nice but the weekend started off kinda shaky. My youngest had a fall baseball game Friday night at 6 PM, so I got there and we left at 7:30, thinking we could easily make the 10:30 boat. Funny thing- after September 12th there is no 10:30 ferry. Thankfully there was a "special" that night so I only had to pay $30 for all three of us to take the 10:45 "special" over. We got to the house around 11:15. MH, who is a member of the husband's book club, was staying with us so he met us. I put the boys to bed immediately and then had a few cocktails with M?H before he went out and I went to bed. The house is not winterized and it got chilly at night. The boys were fine because they had big fluffy comforters with a high thread count (we're gay-duh!) and I just huddled under the blankets and warmed up. The husband had to get his car fixed so he did not come out to the beach until Saturday afternoon.
Saturday my youngest and I played Pro-Kadima- a quality sport since 1975- on the beach until he said he was too sweaty to play any longer. The oldest stayed at the house and watched season 2 of Heroes.
I left early Sunday because my oldest had two school projects due Monday. The traffic sucked so by the time I got home, the husband and the kids were already home. We grabbed some dinner then came home and watched two episodes of Heroes season 2. We only have one episode left and we'll watch it tonight before season 3 starts.
We moved all of the boxes that are still unpacked so the contractor can get to the space he needs to construct the wall.
I was stunned to see GS and MS have now become bank holding companies. It is an admittedly brilliant move on their part.
Saturday my youngest and I played Pro-Kadima- a quality sport since 1975- on the beach until he said he was too sweaty to play any longer. The oldest stayed at the house and watched season 2 of Heroes.
I left early Sunday because my oldest had two school projects due Monday. The traffic sucked so by the time I got home, the husband and the kids were already home. We grabbed some dinner then came home and watched two episodes of Heroes season 2. We only have one episode left and we'll watch it tonight before season 3 starts.
We moved all of the boxes that are still unpacked so the contractor can get to the space he needs to construct the wall.
I was stunned to see GS and MS have now become bank holding companies. It is an admittedly brilliant move on their part.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Back To School Night
Last night I was at my youngest son's school to meet his teachers. It was a bit useless since he is in a multiage program and has the same teachers he had last year. It was more I think to let the teachers know his parents are both still involved and care. I did get to eat a bunch of cookies and brownies so it wasn't a total waste of time.
The ex told me her mother has to go in for surgery. Apparently she has some type of growth near her pelvis. The word cancer has not been used but I know the ex' maternal grandmother did pass away from cancer. I am a kind of not sure how to handle this situation. Surprisingly when I came out and got divorced it was not taken well by the ex' family- go figure. I do still care about her because she was a large part of my life for a long time but there is a lot of acrimony between us. I also am concerned about how my sons might react to a situation where their grandmother has cancer and if it does not end well, how negatively it will impact them.
So on Mini Adventures my eldarin wizard is up to level 4. I seem to have had crappy luck lately on the d20 rolls. I also invited my brother and a good friend who I use to play old school AD&D with back in junior high and high school to join. I noticed Mr. Barrett is kicking some serious ass on the game though- I may have to stop sending him healing or buffs until I catch up, lol. Mr. Clifford is close to falling into that category as well.
I am stunned with what the Treasury and Fed did last night- They banned short selling of financials! Intellectually I have a real problem with what they did. They did a half-assed job and did not take into consideration the law of unintended consequences. The options market is effectively dead now, as is the convert market, the ETF market and you can forget about order facilitation. Talk about engendering moral hazard...
My guess is today there will be record volume all to the up side but come Monday the equity markets will completely freeze. We are now entering an ice age. IT would have been better if they had declared a bank holiday. Which leads me into the real reason they did all this. Several other money market funds yesterday also broke the buck. That led to a huge outflow of actual cash from banks. The Fed and Treasury sees this stuff real time and they saw a massive run on banks starting to happen and it scared the shit out of them. They did not have many options. I get why they did it but all it does is delay the final cleansing of the chicanery that has been going on in the markets for the past 15 years.
Now that I am all happy and joyful, I am off to the beach this weekend. My youngest has a fall baseball game at 6 and I have the boys this weekend. So I will try to catch some of his game and then take them to the beach. We will be on the last boat over. The husband actually has his book club at the beach this weekend and we have one of the book club members staying with us in the third room. TK and MK will be out there as well so we'll get some cards in. It is my last weekend out there this season.
The ex told me her mother has to go in for surgery. Apparently she has some type of growth near her pelvis. The word cancer has not been used but I know the ex' maternal grandmother did pass away from cancer. I am a kind of not sure how to handle this situation. Surprisingly when I came out and got divorced it was not taken well by the ex' family- go figure. I do still care about her because she was a large part of my life for a long time but there is a lot of acrimony between us. I also am concerned about how my sons might react to a situation where their grandmother has cancer and if it does not end well, how negatively it will impact them.
So on Mini Adventures my eldarin wizard is up to level 4. I seem to have had crappy luck lately on the d20 rolls. I also invited my brother and a good friend who I use to play old school AD&D with back in junior high and high school to join. I noticed Mr. Barrett is kicking some serious ass on the game though- I may have to stop sending him healing or buffs until I catch up, lol. Mr. Clifford is close to falling into that category as well.
I am stunned with what the Treasury and Fed did last night- They banned short selling of financials! Intellectually I have a real problem with what they did. They did a half-assed job and did not take into consideration the law of unintended consequences. The options market is effectively dead now, as is the convert market, the ETF market and you can forget about order facilitation. Talk about engendering moral hazard...
My guess is today there will be record volume all to the up side but come Monday the equity markets will completely freeze. We are now entering an ice age. IT would have been better if they had declared a bank holiday. Which leads me into the real reason they did all this. Several other money market funds yesterday also broke the buck. That led to a huge outflow of actual cash from banks. The Fed and Treasury sees this stuff real time and they saw a massive run on banks starting to happen and it scared the shit out of them. They did not have many options. I get why they did it but all it does is delay the final cleansing of the chicanery that has been going on in the markets for the past 15 years.
Now that I am all happy and joyful, I am off to the beach this weekend. My youngest has a fall baseball game at 6 and I have the boys this weekend. So I will try to catch some of his game and then take them to the beach. We will be on the last boat over. The husband actually has his book club at the beach this weekend and we have one of the book club members staying with us in the third room. TK and MK will be out there as well so we'll get some cards in. It is my last weekend out there this season.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
What's $85 billion amongst friends?
Last night after work I met with the contractor and gave him a deposit to start work on the interior wall we are putting up in the new place. This wall has been a pain in the ass. We are renting; the owners asked if they could get a look at what we were doing so they met with the contractor. They then decided they didn't want there to be a single door but wanted double French doors. I had to call them and explain that if they wanted double French doors they should pay the cost of the wall. They said well we don't want this construction you do. EXACTLY! My point was if they had wanted a wall they had ample time to do it themselves but did not want to incur the cost. But now that their tenants were doing it they wanted to get involved. Once I explained it that way and made my case they acquiesced on how we were having it done. I said to the husband we should never have said anything and just done it.
We are almost done with Heroes so we will be ready for Monday's premiere. We also caught the new episode of Fringe.
There were some major cuties at the gym last night. I was going to go swim this morning but with what is going on in the markets I decided it was better to get t the desk earlier than usual.
Let's talk about the markets. The Fed now has an $85 billion SIV. They bought 79.9% of AIG. They did that number so that it does not have to reside on their balance sheet- 80% is the bar, if an entity owns 80% of anther they must include it on their balance sheet. They are charging a rate that I am sure is illegal in some states- 3 month LIBOR plus 850 basis points. We are now becoming what Great Britain was after WWII- a closet socialist nation- until Thatcher came along and changed it all. Where is the $85 billion coming from? Simple- out of your paycheck. The Treasury will just print more money- that is inflationary thus reducing your purchasing power which is the same as a tax increase. A friend JW argued it was deflationary as long as foreigners kept buying our bonds. Well the latest TIC data ( a measurement of foreign buying of our bonds) shows a marked decline in the willingness of foreigners to buy any more of our bonds. He argued well they are buying Treasuries and selling agencies. I had to kindly point out to him that since the government took over both FNM and FRE there is no difference between the two anymore. We will have to just turn on the printing press. What the Fed did will be felt in our economy for generations. They just took the idea of moral hazard to a whole new level.
The much more frightening issue and the one that will effect most people and isn't really getting focused on enough is the Reserve Fund breaking the buck. The Reserve Fund is a money market fund- a lot like a checking account but not insured by the FDIC. The $1 NAV has been sacrosanct. If it breaks the buck (i.e. the $1 NAV) that is bad. It did last night. The irony is the guys who run the Reserve Fund are the ones who invented the whole concept of a money market fund. They are traditionally very conservative with what they buy for the fund. They did not get into the whole collateralized issues. They gt hit the old fashioned way- they owned debt and notes of LEH.
BCS was very savvy in how they got the LEH assets they wanted. I applaud them. They bought them out of bankruptcy. A brilliant move. Now their US investment banking ops are the only truly clean ones around- all the crap that took LEH down they did not buy and is still in chapter 11.
I did get to see Full Lower Lip on the bus this morning. He is still seriously hot- I think he smiled at me too.
Mr. Barrett got me involved in Mini Adventures on facebook. It is a total geek thing but fun. Basically a really simplified, fully automated D&D game.
I have back to school night tomorrow for my youngest. That is always fun but I have been thru it many times already so it will be quick and painless at least.
Our kids got tickets last week for not being licensed in Hoboken. So we had to get their rabies updated and then we will get them licensed. The younger one got her rabies shot Monday and is definitely feeling it. She was not her usual happy go lucky self last night or this morning.
We are almost done with Heroes so we will be ready for Monday's premiere. We also caught the new episode of Fringe.
There were some major cuties at the gym last night. I was going to go swim this morning but with what is going on in the markets I decided it was better to get t the desk earlier than usual.
Let's talk about the markets. The Fed now has an $85 billion SIV. They bought 79.9% of AIG. They did that number so that it does not have to reside on their balance sheet- 80% is the bar, if an entity owns 80% of anther they must include it on their balance sheet. They are charging a rate that I am sure is illegal in some states- 3 month LIBOR plus 850 basis points. We are now becoming what Great Britain was after WWII- a closet socialist nation- until Thatcher came along and changed it all. Where is the $85 billion coming from? Simple- out of your paycheck. The Treasury will just print more money- that is inflationary thus reducing your purchasing power which is the same as a tax increase. A friend JW argued it was deflationary as long as foreigners kept buying our bonds. Well the latest TIC data ( a measurement of foreign buying of our bonds) shows a marked decline in the willingness of foreigners to buy any more of our bonds. He argued well they are buying Treasuries and selling agencies. I had to kindly point out to him that since the government took over both FNM and FRE there is no difference between the two anymore. We will have to just turn on the printing press. What the Fed did will be felt in our economy for generations. They just took the idea of moral hazard to a whole new level.
The much more frightening issue and the one that will effect most people and isn't really getting focused on enough is the Reserve Fund breaking the buck. The Reserve Fund is a money market fund- a lot like a checking account but not insured by the FDIC. The $1 NAV has been sacrosanct. If it breaks the buck (i.e. the $1 NAV) that is bad. It did last night. The irony is the guys who run the Reserve Fund are the ones who invented the whole concept of a money market fund. They are traditionally very conservative with what they buy for the fund. They did not get into the whole collateralized issues. They gt hit the old fashioned way- they owned debt and notes of LEH.
BCS was very savvy in how they got the LEH assets they wanted. I applaud them. They bought them out of bankruptcy. A brilliant move. Now their US investment banking ops are the only truly clean ones around- all the crap that took LEH down they did not buy and is still in chapter 11.
I did get to see Full Lower Lip on the bus this morning. He is still seriously hot- I think he smiled at me too.
Mr. Barrett got me involved in Mini Adventures on facebook. It is a total geek thing but fun. Basically a really simplified, fully automated D&D game.
I have back to school night tomorrow for my youngest. That is always fun but I have been thru it many times already so it will be quick and painless at least.
Our kids got tickets last week for not being licensed in Hoboken. So we had to get their rabies updated and then we will get them licensed. The younger one got her rabies shot Monday and is definitely feeling it. She was not her usual happy go lucky self last night or this morning.
Monday, September 15, 2008
That one I missed totally
So LEH was allowed to fail- I can't believe it! I really thought BARC would come in and buy them. I applaud the federal government for staring down the Street too. In retrospect I have to say that LEH's fate should have been BSC's fate but that is neither here nor there. I am also surprised that BAC is buying MER. There were rumblings of that Friday but I thought that event horizon was much further away than yesterday. The cynic in me says BAC was pressured by the government to do it and with the BAC CEO saying he wasn't that makes me think even more strongly it was the case. GS will be forced to buy a bank as well.
The emails were flying fast and furious from about the time I left the beach to take the boys home until about midnight. I was supposed to be working out of the office on the west coast from today until Wednesday but after discussing it with the boss man I decided it would be more prudent to reschedule the trip. I had the COO's admin reschedule it and she actually saved me money- woo hoo!
The past weekend we had the boys at the beach and we were real lazy. Thursday night we were out with JP for drinks and we mentioned how we have to watch Heroes- both the 1st and 2nd season- because we hear so much about it and the new starts a week from today. He told us he watched it with his nephews and the boys would love it. He was right. Saturday the weather was not conducive to being outside so we had a Heroes Season One marathon. My oldest totally got into it. Season Two comes out this week and we have the boys again this coming weekend so we will try to get all of that in too. I think the best part of the weekend was it was a guys weekend. All of us got so into Heroes we did not shower once and my oldest was proud of it and it was the first thing out of his mouth to his mother when I dropped them off.
I am sure a lot of you played the game when you were a kid about getting someone to say the word "what" and then telling them they have five minutes to get rid of it. My youngest is really on that kick. He and the husband played hangman Sunday. The word was what. The husband did not get it and got "hanged." When he finally said the word my youngest told him ha- five minutes to get rid of it.
I was in work earlier than usual today because of the turmoil. There was a really cute Irish boy on the bus- just an aside...
When the Children's News Broadcasting Corp starts running shows about how to protect your money from the bear market you know we are close to the end. I'd venture we are in the 7th inning at this point. AIG has issues and it could be the grand slam that ends the game.
The emails were flying fast and furious from about the time I left the beach to take the boys home until about midnight. I was supposed to be working out of the office on the west coast from today until Wednesday but after discussing it with the boss man I decided it would be more prudent to reschedule the trip. I had the COO's admin reschedule it and she actually saved me money- woo hoo!
The past weekend we had the boys at the beach and we were real lazy. Thursday night we were out with JP for drinks and we mentioned how we have to watch Heroes- both the 1st and 2nd season- because we hear so much about it and the new starts a week from today. He told us he watched it with his nephews and the boys would love it. He was right. Saturday the weather was not conducive to being outside so we had a Heroes Season One marathon. My oldest totally got into it. Season Two comes out this week and we have the boys again this coming weekend so we will try to get all of that in too. I think the best part of the weekend was it was a guys weekend. All of us got so into Heroes we did not shower once and my oldest was proud of it and it was the first thing out of his mouth to his mother when I dropped them off.
I am sure a lot of you played the game when you were a kid about getting someone to say the word "what" and then telling them they have five minutes to get rid of it. My youngest is really on that kick. He and the husband played hangman Sunday. The word was what. The husband did not get it and got "hanged." When he finally said the word my youngest told him ha- five minutes to get rid of it.
I was in work earlier than usual today because of the turmoil. There was a really cute Irish boy on the bus- just an aside...
When the Children's News Broadcasting Corp starts running shows about how to protect your money from the bear market you know we are close to the end. I'd venture we are in the 7th inning at this point. AIG has issues and it could be the grand slam that ends the game.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
I'll never forget
So it has been seven years since I had friends and neighbors murdered by terrorists. I also almost lost two family members but that is a different story. The events that occurred seven years ago are directly responsible for where I am in my life today. The attacks on 9/11 led me to a lot of questioning about my life and whether or not I really was happy with where I was and what I had. It was not a quick and easy decision but I finally got to the point where I was finally ready to show some courage in my life. The rest is history.
The day started nicely as I went and swam and there was a major cutie in the pool this morning. Once I got to the office though the shit started. LEH was the big news/debacle. IT was so freakin' busy and head spinning that the guy who always goes to CMG to pick up lunch with me on Thursdays and I decided to down a quick Coors light whilst waiting for them to make out lunch. The cute Latino behind the counter with the nice guns made my fajita burrito and I think he may have been hitting on me as he overstuffed the thing and was very nice to me. I felt like asking him do you stuff all of them with that much meat but I think my co-worker would have spit his beer out. We than walked past a reputable bar in Hell's Pantry on the way back to the office and downed another Coors Light, lol. We both agreed in the elevator the second one was not a bright idea.
Speaking of LEH- looks like there will be some kind of announcement on Sunday afternoon- shocker! The tape rallied into the close on the hopes that THIS bailout will be the fix and we won't need anymore. Right. Just wondering where all the money will be coming for this purchase?
So some U.S. Senators now that they have FNM and FRE under their thumbs think if both freeze any foreclosures for 90 days that will turn a non=performing loan into a performing asset. Last time I checked if you freeze shit, 90 days later it's still shit. I don't see how they think delaying the process will make things magically good. When did we Americans become such pussies?! We know we need to take our medicine but don't want to do the deed.
Mom and Dad are driving across the country. They will be arriving in Vegas this Sunday which also happens to be Mom's birthday. So I called a local florist and now Mom will have flowers waiting for her when she checks in from me, the husband and the boys.
I had to laugh at a story I read today on BBERG. Apparently in Durban 3 men were killed when an argument broke out over who had the larger genitals. Obviously they were all straight since us gays would have compared all and probably ended up having an orgy.
The day started nicely as I went and swam and there was a major cutie in the pool this morning. Once I got to the office though the shit started. LEH was the big news/debacle. IT was so freakin' busy and head spinning that the guy who always goes to CMG to pick up lunch with me on Thursdays and I decided to down a quick Coors light whilst waiting for them to make out lunch. The cute Latino behind the counter with the nice guns made my fajita burrito and I think he may have been hitting on me as he overstuffed the thing and was very nice to me. I felt like asking him do you stuff all of them with that much meat but I think my co-worker would have spit his beer out. We than walked past a reputable bar in Hell's Pantry on the way back to the office and downed another Coors Light, lol. We both agreed in the elevator the second one was not a bright idea.
Speaking of LEH- looks like there will be some kind of announcement on Sunday afternoon- shocker! The tape rallied into the close on the hopes that THIS bailout will be the fix and we won't need anymore. Right. Just wondering where all the money will be coming for this purchase?
So some U.S. Senators now that they have FNM and FRE under their thumbs think if both freeze any foreclosures for 90 days that will turn a non=performing loan into a performing asset. Last time I checked if you freeze shit, 90 days later it's still shit. I don't see how they think delaying the process will make things magically good. When did we Americans become such pussies?! We know we need to take our medicine but don't want to do the deed.
Mom and Dad are driving across the country. They will be arriving in Vegas this Sunday which also happens to be Mom's birthday. So I called a local florist and now Mom will have flowers waiting for her when she checks in from me, the husband and the boys.
I had to laugh at a story I read today on BBERG. Apparently in Durban 3 men were killed when an argument broke out over who had the larger genitals. Obviously they were all straight since us gays would have compared all and probably ended up having an orgy.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
She will be a reluctant bride
The weather has been amazing for autumn in the city. It fits nicely with my traditional autumnal goatee. Every year I have a goatee from Labor Day until the winter solstice. I know that Labor Day is not the actual start of autumn but in my mind it always has been since that is when I went back to school or the beach season ended. So I have my autumnal goatee. This year I have noticed a lot more gray in it but what can I do? I like to think I am taking the red wine path into my AARP membership years.
Did not go to the gym this morning slept in and last night we left the windows open and it was really nice and brisk in the bedroom when I woke up, so I stayed under the covers.
So LEH finally, kinda, sorta bit the bullet. All of us on the desk were shaking our heads when they did the press release. It really wasn't enough. They are still trying to dictate price and have not realized they are a price taker not a price setter. We came to the conclusion that since historically LEH is culturally a trading house it make sense that they would be trying to trade out of this error (i.e. their over dependence on MBS, ABCP, RMBS, etc.) for the past year. The first rule every trader learns though is NEVER trade an error; you become anchored to a certain price and emotional when the error gets even larger and much like an addict you are hoping and trying to score that one big trade that will wipe away your loss due to the error. LEH has to accept their fate and close out their error. My guess is they will suffer the fate of BSC and I would be watching the news wires Sunday before Asia opens for an announcement of a forced marriage. Not sure who the groom will be but that is superfluous. Not going to try and guess the price because the Treasury has shown a much sterner approach lately.
We are in the processing of getting an interior wall built in the new place and I have to say getting contractors sucks. We had a second guy come today and he measured, etc. He'll get back to us. The first one who came here two weeks ago finally came back with and estimate today. Sadly neither of them is hot.
I went to the gym after and got a good workout in, lifted and did the elliptical. Will swim tomorrow. When I got home the husband was in the process of finally starting to hang some of his art. I put shelves up in the laundry closet.
The boys are doing well. My oldest is finding 6th grade and the middle school not as intimidating as he expected. He is actually pleasant when I talk to him and he is doing his homework. My youngest is doing well in the gifted group. I have never worried about him other than maybe he gets bored at school. We have them at the beach this weekend. They are excited because we get to use the fireplace since it will most likely be chilly at night.
Did not go to the gym this morning slept in and last night we left the windows open and it was really nice and brisk in the bedroom when I woke up, so I stayed under the covers.
So LEH finally, kinda, sorta bit the bullet. All of us on the desk were shaking our heads when they did the press release. It really wasn't enough. They are still trying to dictate price and have not realized they are a price taker not a price setter. We came to the conclusion that since historically LEH is culturally a trading house it make sense that they would be trying to trade out of this error (i.e. their over dependence on MBS, ABCP, RMBS, etc.) for the past year. The first rule every trader learns though is NEVER trade an error; you become anchored to a certain price and emotional when the error gets even larger and much like an addict you are hoping and trying to score that one big trade that will wipe away your loss due to the error. LEH has to accept their fate and close out their error. My guess is they will suffer the fate of BSC and I would be watching the news wires Sunday before Asia opens for an announcement of a forced marriage. Not sure who the groom will be but that is superfluous. Not going to try and guess the price because the Treasury has shown a much sterner approach lately.
We are in the processing of getting an interior wall built in the new place and I have to say getting contractors sucks. We had a second guy come today and he measured, etc. He'll get back to us. The first one who came here two weeks ago finally came back with and estimate today. Sadly neither of them is hot.
I went to the gym after and got a good workout in, lifted and did the elliptical. Will swim tomorrow. When I got home the husband was in the process of finally starting to hang some of his art. I put shelves up in the laundry closet.
The boys are doing well. My oldest is finding 6th grade and the middle school not as intimidating as he expected. He is actually pleasant when I talk to him and he is doing his homework. My youngest is doing well in the gifted group. I have never worried about him other than maybe he gets bored at school. We have them at the beach this weekend. They are excited because we get to use the fireplace since it will most likely be chilly at night.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Black cod is actually a white fish
Just to refer back to yesterday's post- the chances of the LHC creating a black hole that devours the Earth and solves the credit crisis is 1 in 50 million. I believe that is better odds than winning the Mega Millions but don't quote me on that- but I digress...
I swam this morning and I was psyched with the time it took me to do a half mile. I am not sure I am ready for the race in October but at this point I don't care since the husband and the boss both chickened out. I just want to do it so I can say haha.
The action in the markets today made me a bit nervous. LEH had serious bad rumors swirling about it all day. This past weekend we actually met an analyst from the shop out at the beach and played cards with him. Felt bad for the guy because he is in a shit situation at work and is also trying to kick the booze habit at he same time. He seemed like a nice guy and I hope he kicks the booze habit first and foremost and hope LEH survives.
The most likely scenario from what I have heard and from talking with people smarter than me is LEH is forced into an arranged marriage, the common stock owners and preferred owners are wiped out and the senior debt holders take some kind of haircut. I have to say that makes sense to me since the first bailout (BSC) only the common holders got whacked; the second bailout (FNM and FRE) the common and preferred got wiped out; so the third and hopefully final bailout will tell everyone no holder is safe and if you expect to get bailed out you will lose all. It really is the government (led by the Treasury Secretary) forcing a risk premium back into the market that has been absent for too long.
We had Ragnar and his bf over for dinner tonight. The husband was in charge of the actual meal and I was in charge of dessert. He made this amazing pan fried black cod with salsa verde and roasted potatoes with broccoli. I made mom's hot fudge pudding cake. Everything was from scratch.
Tomorrow will be a scary/interesting day. I am starting to get concerned about my personal risk profile. But that is neither here nor there and you probably could care less, lol.
I swam this morning and I was psyched with the time it took me to do a half mile. I am not sure I am ready for the race in October but at this point I don't care since the husband and the boss both chickened out. I just want to do it so I can say haha.
The action in the markets today made me a bit nervous. LEH had serious bad rumors swirling about it all day. This past weekend we actually met an analyst from the shop out at the beach and played cards with him. Felt bad for the guy because he is in a shit situation at work and is also trying to kick the booze habit at he same time. He seemed like a nice guy and I hope he kicks the booze habit first and foremost and hope LEH survives.
The most likely scenario from what I have heard and from talking with people smarter than me is LEH is forced into an arranged marriage, the common stock owners and preferred owners are wiped out and the senior debt holders take some kind of haircut. I have to say that makes sense to me since the first bailout (BSC) only the common holders got whacked; the second bailout (FNM and FRE) the common and preferred got wiped out; so the third and hopefully final bailout will tell everyone no holder is safe and if you expect to get bailed out you will lose all. It really is the government (led by the Treasury Secretary) forcing a risk premium back into the market that has been absent for too long.
We had Ragnar and his bf over for dinner tonight. The husband was in charge of the actual meal and I was in charge of dessert. He made this amazing pan fried black cod with salsa verde and roasted potatoes with broccoli. I made mom's hot fudge pudding cake. Everything was from scratch.
Tomorrow will be a scary/interesting day. I am starting to get concerned about my personal risk profile. But that is neither here nor there and you probably could care less, lol.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Looks like we're Jets fans for the season
Poor Tom Brady is out for the season due to an ACL injury. I told the husband- who offered to quickly get a nursing degree to get Tom back to health- that we now have to go for the next hottest QB and that would be #4, good ol' Bret Favre. I still haven't found out if he has moved to Hoboken so I can stalk him surreptitiously.
So the other thing I noticed this weekend is that even gay guys follow the urinal rules. I know I have some straight friends who read this and they know what I am talking about but I think most gays will say huh? When there are a certain number of urinals for use in a bathroom all straight guys instinctively know which ones are your first choice if one is already in use. Gay guys have that instinct too but don't even realize they are doing it because most all of us were indoctrinated in straight ways. It was pretty funny when I was at the urinals Saturday night in the dance club and realized even gays follow them. I laughed out loud and got several nasty looks from the other guys using the urinals- guess the have some insecurity about the size of their packages.
I read Wiki everyday- especially the On This Date section. In it today was an item about USAF Tech Sergeant Leonard Matlovich. It was pretty interesting and very courageous what the guy did.
I also read about how the human brain discerns a lot about a person solely by the way the person walks. Apparently we humans can figure out in shadows solely by the way the person walks the person's gender, mood and age and whether they are walking towards us or away from us.
I see the LHC (large hadron collider) is about to start up soon if it has not started yet. There is supposedly a 1 in 50 million chance it could create a black hole that quickly devours the earth. That would be one way to solve the current economic crisis we are in but it's not my first choice.
The other option is to push things out until after the election- which is what the U.S. government did by taking over FNM and FRE. As the WSJ editorial put it, the situation is reminiscent of the classic move Weekend At Bernie's where FNM and FRE are Bernie and the Treasury, the Treasury Secretary and the Fed are the two no name actors who pretend he is alive.
Today's action in the tape did not instill confidence in me. At one point I was very concerned we would go in the red. I think that will happen tomorrow once more people realize we are one step closer to repeating the Wiemar Republic on an economic basis.
So the other thing I noticed this weekend is that even gay guys follow the urinal rules. I know I have some straight friends who read this and they know what I am talking about but I think most gays will say huh? When there are a certain number of urinals for use in a bathroom all straight guys instinctively know which ones are your first choice if one is already in use. Gay guys have that instinct too but don't even realize they are doing it because most all of us were indoctrinated in straight ways. It was pretty funny when I was at the urinals Saturday night in the dance club and realized even gays follow them. I laughed out loud and got several nasty looks from the other guys using the urinals- guess the have some insecurity about the size of their packages.
I read Wiki everyday- especially the On This Date section. In it today was an item about USAF Tech Sergeant Leonard Matlovich. It was pretty interesting and very courageous what the guy did.
I also read about how the human brain discerns a lot about a person solely by the way the person walks. Apparently we humans can figure out in shadows solely by the way the person walks the person's gender, mood and age and whether they are walking towards us or away from us.
I see the LHC (large hadron collider) is about to start up soon if it has not started yet. There is supposedly a 1 in 50 million chance it could create a black hole that quickly devours the earth. That would be one way to solve the current economic crisis we are in but it's not my first choice.
The other option is to push things out until after the election- which is what the U.S. government did by taking over FNM and FRE. As the WSJ editorial put it, the situation is reminiscent of the classic move Weekend At Bernie's where FNM and FRE are Bernie and the Treasury, the Treasury Secretary and the Fed are the two no name actors who pretend he is alive.
Today's action in the tape did not instill confidence in me. At one point I was very concerned we would go in the red. I think that will happen tomorrow once more people realize we are one step closer to repeating the Wiemar Republic on an economic basis.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Ahhh Hana, you weren't that fierce
Thursday night we had dinner at some hot spot in the Village. The husband told me to make sure my jeans were tight and the dress shirt showed enough fur. I was more than happy to comply, lol.
Friday was fairly quiet at the office. Everyone was concerned about Hana hitting the city. We went to the beach anyways. We drove out and stopped by the in-laws for a bit then caught a later ferry. When I went to park the truck the attendant warned me he was not liable if my truck was flooded by Hana. I kindly pointed out to him that if my Tundra got flooded on the mainland that would be the least of my worried considering I was taking a boat out to a narrow barrier island and that would surely suffer more.
We got out kind of late and there were not a lot of people out there but TK was so he stopped by and picked us up and we went out. It was fun.
We then spent the day playing cards at TK's place and riding out the torrential rains. The best part of the weekend was we did no cooking- TK made dinner at his place for us Saturday evening. After dinner we watched some tv but I fell asleep and then we went out. We had a blast going to the dance club. We went home at 3 AM.
The weather was amazing today. We went to the beach and played Scrabble with TK and checked out a bunch of the hotties. We caught the usual ferry home. We had Chinese take out for dinner and then caught HBO's new series True Blood. It was pretty good. I have not read the books because they seemed more like chick vampire romance movies.
The big news on the business front is FNM and FRE getting nationalized. Funny that I wrote about that last week. The equity holders are screwed but the bonds are now essentially U.S. government debt. It is a mixed bag to be honest. It need to be done to prevent a complete and utter meltdown of the financial system as we know it. The bad thing is now our taxes will go up either directly or indirectly. We who were prudent and did not reach beyond our means will now be paying for other peoples excesses. Interest rates are going up. There is still a huge capital funding issue for financials. LEH is still a huge elephant in the room. WaMu has serious problems. The markets will rip to the upside for the next few days but once this all sinks in we will continue our down draft. Unemployment higher than 6% is not a good thing.
Friday was fairly quiet at the office. Everyone was concerned about Hana hitting the city. We went to the beach anyways. We drove out and stopped by the in-laws for a bit then caught a later ferry. When I went to park the truck the attendant warned me he was not liable if my truck was flooded by Hana. I kindly pointed out to him that if my Tundra got flooded on the mainland that would be the least of my worried considering I was taking a boat out to a narrow barrier island and that would surely suffer more.
We got out kind of late and there were not a lot of people out there but TK was so he stopped by and picked us up and we went out. It was fun.
We then spent the day playing cards at TK's place and riding out the torrential rains. The best part of the weekend was we did no cooking- TK made dinner at his place for us Saturday evening. After dinner we watched some tv but I fell asleep and then we went out. We had a blast going to the dance club. We went home at 3 AM.
The weather was amazing today. We went to the beach and played Scrabble with TK and checked out a bunch of the hotties. We caught the usual ferry home. We had Chinese take out for dinner and then caught HBO's new series True Blood. It was pretty good. I have not read the books because they seemed more like chick vampire romance movies.
The big news on the business front is FNM and FRE getting nationalized. Funny that I wrote about that last week. The equity holders are screwed but the bonds are now essentially U.S. government debt. It is a mixed bag to be honest. It need to be done to prevent a complete and utter meltdown of the financial system as we know it. The bad thing is now our taxes will go up either directly or indirectly. We who were prudent and did not reach beyond our means will now be paying for other peoples excesses. Interest rates are going up. There is still a huge capital funding issue for financials. LEH is still a huge elephant in the room. WaMu has serious problems. The markets will rip to the upside for the next few days but once this all sinks in we will continue our down draft. Unemployment higher than 6% is not a good thing.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
The summer is over but not the beach
Labor Day weekend the weather at the beach was amazing! It was sunny and warm all weekend. JP finally made it out to the beach. He really isn't a guest because he is an adult and doesn't need to be entertained so it was a welcome respite for the husband and me. He got out early Saturday night so we did not go tot tea but we did go to the Pavilion and see Junior. It was the first time I had been to the legendary dj's spinning. It was a blast! A mass of sweaty, muscly shirtless men all moving to the same beat out on Fire Island- seriously, it doesn't get any better than that.
The next morning- really afternoon since we did not get home until 4:30 AM- the husband and JP were seriously hurting. We ate breakfast at 1:15 in the afternoon. I had been up much earlier and gotten breakfast fixings and run into some friends. Apparently to my untrained ears Junior was not that great of a set. We spent the day lounging/recuperating next to the pool. The husband made a nice dinner for the three of us and then we had friends come over for a friendly game of pitch. JP had learned how to play just hours before and it was a blast. TK and one of his house mates the JM the dress maker joined us. The five of us then went to the local bar and had some drinks. It was early to bed for the three of us.
When we got home Monday evening we ran into this serious hottie. He is stunningly beautiful, lives in the building, drives a really nice car and has a girlfriend (since I saw no rings on either of their hands) who loved the kids and couldn't stop petting them.
Tuesday morning the boss relayed a story of how he and his kids saw a school of stingrays down the shore. We got into a discussion about what the proper name is for such a formation and it is called a fever if stingrays.
The USD is having a massive rally since it has been kicked in the teeth for the past six years. The thinking is because we are in a recession and the rest of the world is following us in so we are the best bet on a relative basis since the Fed's current interest rate regime is much more conducive to recovery whilst the ECB has not budged.
I would venture to say we are halfway through the credit crisis but now it is impacting the real economy in a negative way. The auto makers are crap. I read one time that the U.S. auto industry accounted for something like one in four of every jobs directly or indirectly. That is not the case these days but still they are a big chunk of jobs. My guess is F and/or GM will have to reorganize at some point.
I really wish the whole LEH story would play out. The problem is that LEH is forgetting the cardinal rule of valuation: Some thing is only worth what some one is willing to pay for it regardless of what the owner/seller thinks it is worth. Once they remember that rule they will most likely sell themselves or a stake in themselves at some huge discount which will cause a correlation of one in all asset classes on the way down and then we will be pretty damn close to the credit crisis being over.
Will be starting karate back up next week hoping to finish that off and get the black pants. Training for the upcoming sprint tri has not been great and the husband who snookered me into it is now backing out.
The next morning- really afternoon since we did not get home until 4:30 AM- the husband and JP were seriously hurting. We ate breakfast at 1:15 in the afternoon. I had been up much earlier and gotten breakfast fixings and run into some friends. Apparently to my untrained ears Junior was not that great of a set. We spent the day lounging/recuperating next to the pool. The husband made a nice dinner for the three of us and then we had friends come over for a friendly game of pitch. JP had learned how to play just hours before and it was a blast. TK and one of his house mates the JM the dress maker joined us. The five of us then went to the local bar and had some drinks. It was early to bed for the three of us.
When we got home Monday evening we ran into this serious hottie. He is stunningly beautiful, lives in the building, drives a really nice car and has a girlfriend (since I saw no rings on either of their hands) who loved the kids and couldn't stop petting them.
Tuesday morning the boss relayed a story of how he and his kids saw a school of stingrays down the shore. We got into a discussion about what the proper name is for such a formation and it is called a fever if stingrays.
The USD is having a massive rally since it has been kicked in the teeth for the past six years. The thinking is because we are in a recession and the rest of the world is following us in so we are the best bet on a relative basis since the Fed's current interest rate regime is much more conducive to recovery whilst the ECB has not budged.
I would venture to say we are halfway through the credit crisis but now it is impacting the real economy in a negative way. The auto makers are crap. I read one time that the U.S. auto industry accounted for something like one in four of every jobs directly or indirectly. That is not the case these days but still they are a big chunk of jobs. My guess is F and/or GM will have to reorganize at some point.
I really wish the whole LEH story would play out. The problem is that LEH is forgetting the cardinal rule of valuation: Some thing is only worth what some one is willing to pay for it regardless of what the owner/seller thinks it is worth. Once they remember that rule they will most likely sell themselves or a stake in themselves at some huge discount which will cause a correlation of one in all asset classes on the way down and then we will be pretty damn close to the credit crisis being over.
Will be starting karate back up next week hoping to finish that off and get the black pants. Training for the upcoming sprint tri has not been great and the husband who snookered me into it is now backing out.
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