Sunday, May 3, 2009

It will always be SciFi to me, never ScyFy

It's nice to know my oldest is still my little guy. Friday night when we got home he immediately put on SciFi and started watching Moonlight- a poorly written, derivative of Angel without the humor or David Boreanaz. I commented on the fact I did not know he liked it and asked if he watches it at his mom's house. He said no and his little brother chimed in ever since he got scared after watching Ghost Hunters that one time mom wouldn't let him watch SciFi anymore. Funny because he and the husband watch it all the time here- especially the really bad, cheesy B-list movies. So of course Friday night after they are in bed, about a hour later out came my oldest asking if he could sleep on the couch while I watched t.v. I asked why and he said he was scared from watching SciFi, lol.

Yesterday went and saw Wolverine and I have to say it is definitely only for die-hard fans and young boys. It was pretty good and I would see it again. Hugh Jackman is pretty damn hot and Ryan Reynolds is great in it but there is not enough of Ryan. Liev Schrieber is really good as Sabretooth. My oldest loved it and my youngest thought it was pretty cool too.

It was supposed to rain all day yesterday and it did not rain at all. After the movie we went to the public courts and played tennis. My oldest is getting pretty good at it too. After we walked to Ben & Jerry's for ice cream. We ate dinner late and all I could think of was that Seinfeld episode when Jerry told the guy the idea of a restaurant that served Indian, Mexican and Italian because I had Indian food, my oldest had sushi and my youngest had pizza.

Of course today all the rain that was supposed to be here yesterday is here. We were going to go to the Hoboken Art and Music Festival but not in the rain. We went to Sunday brunch around the corner. My oldest was psyched because it was only $12 for kids 12 and under for all you could eat at the buffet. The eye candy at a Sunday brunch in Hoboken is actually very pleasing to the eye. There were two very hot waiters too and one of them was serving us. When the bill came I realized he was more the dumb blond type. He brought the bill over and charged me for three adults. I called him back and pointed out that the boys were 12 and 9. He brought the new bill over charging me for two adults and one child. I had to call him over again and point out it was kids 12 and under. He gave me a snotty little look and I though Oh Mary, not my fault you are only pretty and not smart too. He finally brought back the bill charging me for one adult an two kids. I debated not tipping him but felt it was not a good idea since both boys said they'd like to go to brunch every Sunday they are with me.

The husband is airborne as I type. He is supposed land around 7:30 which is fine as I can stop at EWR on the way back from dropping the boys off at their mom's house.

Friday, May 1, 2009

You could have totally kicked his ass Dad

So I slept in this morning and blew of training. This whole week my training schedule was in compete disarray. Having to walk the kids in the morning and at night really had me discombobulated. The husband gets back from his grand tour of the Continent Sunday evening and all will be right in the world again. Caught an in between bus- neither early nor late- and have to say there was a good handful of cute guys.

Don't have much to say on the tape other than it was nice to see the WSJ editorial page agree with my assessment of the speed of the Chrysler bankruptcy. This will be a good dry run for GM come the end of this month.

I have the boys again this weekend so I am missing Mr. Clifford's cook out to celebrate his re-entry into civilian life. The weather is supposed to suck and not in the good way. So we are going to take in Wolverine tomorrow afternoon. I am psyched on many levels: the boys love this type of movie, I am a HUGE comic book geek (the collection is bagged and boxed in storage), I get to see Hugh Jackman shirtless and nearly naked, Ryan Reynolds (on my list) is in it and Tyler Kitsch is in too.

So on the ride home from central Jersey with the boys tonight I got all warm and fuzzy. I came to a traffic light about two blocks from the parking garage. The left lane was a must turn left lane. the right lane (my lane) was a turn right or go straight. I went straight (no pun intended) and the asswipe in the left lane tried to speed up and pass me from the left. Not a good thing to do when I am in my Tundra and he is in his A5. I of course stayed the course and laid on the horn. He stopped short and pulled behind me and into the lane on the other side, got even with me and rolled down his window. So of course I rolled down the passenger side window and preceded to have a "discussion" with the "gentleman." I told him look buddy, no matter what you try to say you are wrong, you illegally tried to pass me from a left turn only lane. It was an interesting conversation and at no point did I use any profanity as my oldest was in the passenger seat and my youngest in the back seat. He realized he was losing, told me to screw off and rolled up his window and drove. Out of the back seat I hear "What an asshole." and simultaneously from the passenger seat "Dickhead." I tell the boys that kind of language is not acceptable. They ignored me and started to talk amongst themselves saying "Dad could have totally kicked his ass!" and various other ego building comments on my martial prowess and general manliness/masculinity. There is a lesson in this though. We parked the truck and were walking to the apartment when my youngest asked why I didn't beat the crap out of the guy. I said no one is worth stopping traffic and getting out of your car to beat up. At which point my oldest told me the other guy was a shitty driver anyways. He then made a derogatory comment about the man's ethnicity. I stopped and told him that is not right. He asked why and I stated putting someone down because they are different is never right, how would you like it if someone started calling me a faggot. He said that was different. I told him he only thinks that because I am his dad and it doesn't make it right.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Anarcho-capitalists of the world unite! Wait- is that an oxymoron...?

Yesterday I swam 1800 yards for training before work. After I had drinks with Red. She is an old friend I have known my entire career on the Street. She was actually going through her divorce the same time I was but had a slight head start on me. She looked great and we had fun. I forgot what a light weight she was- two Grey Goose Cosmos and she was flying. I took her to Therapy and I have to say the bartender was sooo damn hot. I used my credit card so he had to ask for ID which means he now knows were I live- let's hope he's the stalking kind, lol. I was supposed to have drinks after with a kid who not only went to the same undergrad I did but is also from my hometown and his step-father was my dentist growing up. He had to cancel at the last minute due to work. This was the third time we've had to reschedule so I told him, in the summer we'll do it and go to the 79th Street Boat Basin.

So, apparently it is no longer allowed for a publicly traded company's CEO to announce they are filing under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code- that is now President Obama's job. I must have missed the management change announcement stating President Obama replaced Bob Nardelli as the CEO of Chrysler.

Speaking of the Chrysler bankruptcy; I have no idea how the Administration thinks it will only take sixty days to wrap up. Seriously, once lawyers get involved that messes up everything. I think President Obama being a lawyer knew that and that is why he tried to help Chrysler avoid having to go into the courts.

Ok, so I thought this country was founded on and built upon the beliefs that individuals are allowed to pursue- and even encouraged to- their own interests? Didn't our Founding Fathers write we have a right to pursue life, liberty and happiness? The belief that we could voluntarily enter into trade of private property and services is why most people take risk and try to improve their lot in life. I am on this riff because the President said Chrysler had to file because some of the loan owners were putting their economic interests ahead of the national economic interests. Well duh? He of course then blamed the hedge funds for forcing Chrysler into this uncharted territory called Chapter 11- oh, wait. We did not need a way for a company to reorganize itself and get out from under debts they can no longer pay. I am perplexed as to why the President has wasted his political capital on this. Maybe it has to do with the fact that by going through the time tested bankruptcy procedures in place the UAW may not end up owning 55% of Chrysler. Then President Obama can say, sorry I tried. Although I must say if the UAW were to become the majority owner of a major car company I would love to see how they would actually make money as they would be bargaining with themselves. "The man" would no longer be the one screwing "the people."

I also was taken aback by some in the Administration saying this changes nothing for Chrysler; everything will be as it was. Funny though that a Chrysler spokesperson said come May 4th they will idle all production until the court proceedings are done. It got me wondering if the employees who will be collecting some type of transfer payment- usually called unemployment benefits- will be excluded from the unemployment figures. Technically they will be furloughed not unemployed...

I saw cram down legislation got defeated. That would have made me feel better until I recalled my bond friend explaining to me that cram down was the lesser of two evils confronting bond holders and all of contract law. Mortgage modification is the worse one. It is worse because the second lien- home equity line of credit (HELOC) originators get treated the same as first lien (mortgage) originators. Now why would that be allowed? Well the banks that originated the mortgages securitized them and sold them- no longer their risk or problem. However- they then went and provided HELOCs to the same homeowners. Normally the first lien has claim on the asset and anyone after gets the crumbs or nothing. Mortgage mod would give the second lien guys something too at the expense of the first lien- because the second liens are still a huge risk to the banks that took TARP but don't need it and passed the stress test- yeah right.

I am sure I wrote before how in classical economics GDP/GNP is represented by Y and made up of consumption (C), investment (I), government expenditures (G), exports (X) and imports(I). Y=C+I+G+(X-M). C accounts for ~70% of Y. C is still decreasing but apparently not as quickly- and there was great rejoicing. Thing is G cannot increase enough to make up for C decreasing- unless we want to go cylinder bore socialist. So with Y still decreasing- albeit slower- we are not near a bottom.

One of The Dog's international fund managers said this morning that we are at the start of a new bull market and financials will lead it. Hello- go and reread the previous paragraph and know that the leader of the old bull market is never the leader of the new one- whenever that may start.

Back in the '90s there was a time whenever a company blew up and missed big time they just blamed el nino. I am predicting now that any company that misses in Q3 or Q4 will blame swine flu. Swine flu will be the new el nino. I have to amend that- we can no longer call it swine flu as it cause undue duress to swine and pigs everywhere (see Jimbo's blog for more info on why it is not a swine flu at all). We are so politically correct we can't call it Mexican flu- but back in 1918 Spanish flu was ok. So they are calling it by it's viral appellation. All the pigs in Egypt can now breath a sigh of relief because the government planned on killing all of them to prevent swine flu...

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Central banks have been and can be beaten by the markets

So did my make up swim this morning with nothing or anyone notable.

I am still feeling these conspiracy theories but not with H1N1a. This time it has to do with Chrysler. When Chrysler was taken private, Cerberus assumed all their debt as well, so there are no bond holders. Instead you have all these loans made by big banks. I am not sure what banks as I was not to interested in all the facts but when I saw the banks agreed to forgive, i.e. write off as a loss, $6.9 billion in loans in exchange for $2 billion and ten percent ownership of the "new" Chrysler I had to wonder. What bank currently has the leeway to accept a roughly twenty eight percent recovery rate plus ten percent of the new perpetual calls that will be issued which may also go to zero? Then it struck me- the banks that are owned by the government or accepted TARP funds from them were probably given the Ken Lewis treatment. Some federal official gave them verbal guidance as to what they should do with the loans. The term plausible deniability should come to mind. I can't wait until the banks then have to write down loans they were probably marking at 100 cents on the dollar to 28 cents on the dollar...

Taking it a step further I could infer it was also a warning to the GM bond holders. See what we did to Chrysler, go ahead and try to call our bluff. The thing is, the bond holders will and have ample legal and historical precedence to win. GM made the tender offer dependant on 90% of the bond holders approving the tender offer. Not gonna happen and is all posturing so when it doesn't GM and the government can lynch Wall Street again for "causing" GM to have to file.

I found it odd that the Fed felt the need to release a press statement that the government of Singapore will not take a controlling stake in Shitigroup. Instead they will convert their preferreds into common. I wold say what really happened was the Fed and or Shitigroup asked Singapore to pony up again. Singapore said no thanks we'll just convert.

There is an old adage on the Street that you don't fight the Fed. All of the shit going on though reminded me of when Soros broke the Bank of England in 1994. There is precedent for going against a central bank and winning that just happens to be the only one I have witnessed in my career.

The "photo-op" from yesterday was still all over the news. I really don't think President Obama should be held responsible for it. It was asinine and stupid. A friend sent me a video from his cell phone of the street level mayhem. It was pretty scary and you could hear the plane long before it was seen. The funny thing was that same clip made it onto the 11 o'clock news here.

All of this furor over H1N1a and tamiflu and relenza makes me pine for the days of Cipro- sort of...

I am starting to really believe that we are in the same spot on the geopolitical stage that the U.K. was between the World Wars. It kind of makes me worry that that means we may have a serious geopolitical disruption in the next 5-7 years and see ourselves go into decline like they did after WWII.

I went to the gym tonight and got my short run in and lifted. There were some serious hot guys there again. Yellow shorts was there and there was a new guy. I have seen him on the morning bus from time to time. I'm calling him blue shoes. I actually spotted him on the bench too.

The husband is taking a little side jaunt to Berlin currently. He is having fun.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Meow- fashion cat time

So I think I may have allergies. I am not sure if late-onset allergies are possible but a lot of my family members have them and it is possible I do as well. I guess I'd rather have late-onset allergies than late-onset diabetes. My nose has been running since Friday and I have been taking Clairitin- thank God the husband has allergies and had a bunch of Redi-Tabs in his bathroom.

This morning with all the hype about H1N1a- the new swine flu- I had a moment of panic I have to admit, lol. I also of course love any good conspiracy theory and H1N1a has so many possibilities: Mexico is on the list of countries that face a distinct possibility of complete breakdown; we (the USA) cannot let that happen; the history between us and Mexico in particular and all of Latin and South America is not the best; if there is a pandemic we could be asked to send the Army in the guise of helping keep civil order and for humanitarian aid; one of the first to go was an archeology curator who met President Obama on the 16th; President Obama is asymptomatic or immunized; President Obama intentionally infected him to spread it so we could get invited in. It is endless and I am surprised it has not sprung up yet but I imagine if we give the right wing fringe enough time...

I really think Sheila Bair is a complete moron. She made a speech today at some economics luncheon that I could not believe. This chick has a pair of seriously large brass balls. She stated that the bulk of the financial crisis was caused by activity outside of the banks, She then went on to say that the liquidity crisis is over and we are in the clean up phase. Funny- she must be very worried about her job and the existence of her agency. The FDIC has no money of their own to begin with as a kind lady in Maine pointed out to me. They just collect fees and then give them to the Treasury. If the bulk of the activity took place outside of the banks then why are the banks the ones that had to be bailed out?

I think I could live Sam Zell. The guy is brilliant even though he bought a newspaper. He totally top-ticked the real estate market. He was on BBRG TV today and I loved his candor and most of his comments.

Ok, time to put the catty- nay, queeny hat on. What the hell are IT guys thinking when they get dressed in the mornings? One guy had the lack of sense to wear cargo pants to the office. The other made the fatal flaw of wearing stripes and plaids. Meow.

The husband is having fun in London. He literally bumped into Jude Law today. Good to know he is still smoking hot according to the husband. Tomorrow he is off to Berlin. HE gets back stateside Sunday evening.

I skipped training this morning and will make it up tomorrow morning.

I am psyched to see the Wolverine movie. Hugh Jackman is so freakin' hot! The boys will be psyched as well since they are here with me this weekend and it is rated PG-13. Tonight is the season finale for Heroes I believe.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Toilet paper is white too and we all know what that is used for

Getting up to speed- the husband left Friday night for his spring break. I had invited him to go to Myrtle Beach with me and the boys and part of my family. He demurred stating if he was taking a week off for spring break he wanted to go to Europe. SO I dropped him off at EWR Friday on my way down to central Jersey to pick up the boys.

The weekend was fun, the weather was amazing. I actually had to run on the air conditioning. The kids have been sleeping in the bed with me and I get to wear my watch to bed. Which is a nice segue to certain rules we have in the house regarding sleeping. If you are going to bed the watch comes off along with all of your clothes no matter what. If you are taking a nap you can wear the watch, clothes stay on and you sleep on top of the covers. If you need something over you use on of the damn blankets- they aren't just accent pieces. It is legal to wear your baseball cap while taking a nap as long as it is tilted down and covering your eyes. But I digress...

So I saw Sayville on the bus the other morning and all I can say is holy shit! The kid looks as hot in a suit as he does in a tank top and tight gym shorts. Today the boys and I dined al fresco for lunch and there was some serious eye candy flaunting it in Hoboken. Which reminds me I saw red hoodie again at the same restaurant the husband and I saw him at last week. Funny- he was eating lunch with the same guy and I am starting to think my meant to be funny, flippant comment of him being on a date with the guy may be true.

I am not a huge conspiracy theorist but the CFO of FRE committing suicide makes me wonder. The guy is my age, worked at the company for 16 years and supposedly had an "institutional" knowledge and memory of the company. If I were a paranoid type I'd say someone took out the person who knew where all the bodies lie. The other thing that makes me wonder is the fact that the SPY is no on the hard to borrow list- WTF? If the SPY is truly hard to borrow then I am starting to think some of the fringe/whackos are right that the government is trying to orchestrate a rally.

I had dinner with my bond friend last week. He makes me look outright cheery about the current state of affairs we've gotten ourselves into. He reaffirmed his belief that Shitigroup and BAC are goners. The results of the stress "tests" the government conducted were given to the banks Friday to much fanfare. Funny thing though- they were all ordered to keep quiet about them. The government also gave out the methodology they used and called it a white paper. Well I know hwy as it is basically toilet paper (which is white) and the only use for it is to wipe your ass after taking a dump. It told you nothing and reinforced the belief posited by many that the stress test was an open book, take home test.

I am having dinner tonight with JP. It will be good to catch up with him. This week will be interesting; I will have to get up earlier than usual so I can walk the kids before work (the husband's usual job) on the days I am swimming for training. I also don't have many plans for the week so I can catch up on the latest Harry Dresden book I bought.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Last dance...last chance...

So I blew of my run this morning and slept in with the husband. I just was not feeling the love after my training yesterday. I really was supposed to make up my bike session but I hate the bike. So I rationalized I can do my run after work and make up the bike tomorrow. We'll see...

I was dialoguing with JW today about an editorial in the WSJ which was talking about how the current Administration for all its campaign rhetoric is just continuing the Bush policies regarding detaining enemy non-combatants. We had a nice intelligent discussion and got to a lot of common ground even though I am right of center and he is left of center- I guess we reached the center. The best part though was when he sent me a link to a bunch of videos titled Green Porno. Isabella Rossellini must be really hard up for dough if she is doing those web videos. The first one he sent almost had me in tears- it was so wrong, so funny and she was so sincere it was scary.

So I have not really kept up with the craigslist killer story but today Mom IMed me that Dad may actually know the accused. Apparently when Dad was the superintendent one of the members of the local board of education had a son by that name. She wasn't sure but Mom is pretty good with that kind of stuff.

The ex called me today to tell me this Friday I don't need to pick up the boys until 9 PM. My oldest has his last school dance of the year.

So the tape rallied today. The mainstream business media tried to say it was because of Turbo Tax Timmy's commentary regarding banks having more than enough capital. Well if that really is the case then why won't the government let the banks repay the TARP? What I think really sparked the rally was CAT's commentary on their conference call. The company supposedly had called the recession back in '07 and so when they said they thought we were at the bottom that caused a pop. either way it is a head fake I think. Mainly because FNM and FRE said they are seeing prime loans now go into default in a huge way. This past month so called prime borrowers defaulting increased by fifty percent. The real estate damage is so not done yet.

The most entertaining comments I read were from the CEO of RF. He basically said TARP is a huge goat-fuck. The government keeps changing the rules on a day to day basis and is using TARP to implement a social policy program instead of addressing the economic causes of the current mess we are in.

I did do my run after work and was psyched I got three and a half miles in in a mere twenty nine minutes. Tomorrow I will be swimming in the AM and then maybe doing my bike after before the husband and I have dinner with MP who just got back from vacation.