Tuesday, March 31, 2009

I am almost on vacation mentally

So this morning I made up my run that I skipped Sunday. I was psyched with my performance as I ran almost 3 miles in 24 minutes. The part that was even better was the boxing class I watch now has three hot guys in it. Then to top it off as I was getting dressed this truly stunning guy in S.U. shorts got dressed next to me. I have no idea if he caught me staring but I don't really care as he had a frackin' amazing body and I could not help myself.

I am surprised there has not been more press about GhostNet. Seriously- the Chinese government has been engaged in a major, serious, covert electronics espionage effort and no one seems to be keen on talking about it. unless of course it is not the Chinese government but is the beginnings of SkyNet...

So I am wondering if Conficker is a huge April Fool joke or could it also be the beginnings of SkyNet? I am not sure but I did go through all the preventative measures outlined on various sites to make sure I am not part of it whether it is a joke or not.

Iran, North Korea, Mexico...which one test our President first? I hope that it is North Korea because at least in that situation we have China and Russia on our side. I did read that North Korea has stated if Japan shoots down their "satellite" rocket that is a declaration of war from their p.o.v. I am sorry but I have no problem with Japan deciding to shoot down any unauthorized violators of their airspace. I don't think Mexico blowing up would be good for us as a country. Iran there are too many secret treaties I think and that is not good as those were a major part of the causes of WWI.

I had drinks after work tonight with a broker who I actually have become friends with over the past three years. He is a really good guy. He used to live in Hoboken so we hit some of his old haunts that I also enjoy. He suggested we do a couples night at the new W Hotel that just opened in Hoboken. I am all for that and so is the husband as we have gone by it a few times and we always comment it is going to be a scene to check out.

Monday, March 30, 2009

OMG Daniel Craig goes to our gym...

So I swam and biked this morning and board shorts was there again. He was getting into the pool as I got out but he was getting dressed as I was after I showered up and he has a great body and really cute bum. I was supposed to run yesterday but got home late from dropping the boys off at their mom's house. I will make it up tomorrow morning.

Here is the deal with Gm and Chrysler: both have no real option other than filing for reorganization. They need to get out from under the massive pension and health care liabilities they have and the only was to do that is filing. The thing is President Obama will get crushed if he betrays the unions by letting them go under. He is totally screwed and I feel bad for him.

I read a piece of research form a broker today who (and I have to agree) that we have just passed through the eye of the storm this month. It makes sense as now the banks will have to deal with their commercial real estate (CRE going forward) issues. Residential is done and they got smoked for it, up next is CRE. Woo-hoo this is gonna be so fun- NOT! I stand by my guess that we will see 650ish on the SPX soon.

The other thing I keep getting stuck on is how the Fed is real worried about inflation due to price inflation apparently. Okay if I recall my undergrad economics studies (which I hope I do as that was my major) there are two types of inflation like there are deflation. There is "good" inflation caused by increased demand for good and services because people are earning more. The "bad" inflation is caused by a huge increase in the supply of money, much like we are going to experience soon. As the supply of money increases it outstrips demand and the price of money goes down, i.e. the purchasing power of said money. So if the money is worth less it takes more to buy the same goods and services. We are screwed.

This is a busy week for the husband and me. It is also only a four day week for me as I am taking Friday off and taking the boys on spring break. I am totally psyched for it.

I went to the gym after work as I needed to hit the weights- gotta loo good for spring break. The husband and I finished up and were getting showered up and dressed when this totally hot man came in. I immediately remembered him form the old apartment as he looks almost exactly like Daniel Craig except he was hotter in some ways. I of course checked out his ass as he got dressed and it was pretty sweet. There was also a seriously hot guy who gets a name and he is called Monster Fishing as that is what was on the back of his tee-shirt.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Woo hoo- no shuttling this weekend

This morning I had a long bike ride to do for training. The tough part was getting up on time. Last night we took mom and dad out to dinner, had some wine, cam home and played cards- it was the rubber match for the series. The husband and mom won and basically just outplayed us. Then the husband and I watched Supernatural and damn Dena looks hot in a suit. Somehow the alarm did not go off so I was up about 20 minutes later than I should have been. I got to the gym and biked a bit over 14 miles in 48 minutes which I am happy with.

If a company's common equity is roughly $3.62 and they announce they are going to tender for their debt and offer the debt holders a combination of cash and new equity that will dilute the current equity holders by 90% isn't that really a stealth reorg? You are basically wiping out the current equity. Well that is what GM has proposed. Yet no one has called them out on it. We'll see what the press has to say this weekend.

I missed the boys. I did not have them two weekends in a row so I was very psyched to pick them up this evening. My oldest told my mom he wanted money for his upcoming birthday so he could buy an iPod Touch. I spoke with his mom this evening and we both agreed he does not need one. I know he wants one so he can get on the Internet at any time. His parents however understand that kids who surf unsupervised can get into trouble so we told him no. If course on the ride home I get the all my friends have one line. I know that is not the fact but I have always wanted to use the line about if all your friends were jumping off a bridge would you? He said no so I won that skirmish.

The one drawback of taking the Pulaski Skyway back to Hoboken is that- even though there is no speed limit- is there is an accident you are screwed. Well that happened tonight on the way home so it took us two and a half hours to get back. It was not fun and Sirius traffic for NYC sucks as it did not mention the accident. If it had I would have taken the truck route. Whatever, shit happens.

The boys were psyched to play House of the Dead 2 with the Wii guns. They did pretty well. They told me they had beaten it at Dave & Busters on only three quarters. I said oh, how'd you do that? Then they 'fessed up the ran their cards out beating it.

This is the first weekend in a long time I have the boys that I will not have to be a chauffeur and take them back down to central Jersey for any activities. I am psyched and so are they. It is supposed to be warm tomorrow but overcast so my oldest and I may go play tennis on the public courts in the morning. I was going to take them to see Monsters Vs. aliens but they said they already told their mom they'd go with her so I'll need to find a different flick for the weekend.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

He's retired and doesn't like golf

Yesterday morning I did my short swim and short bike. I got out of the pool and was changing to go hop on the bike when the guy in the lane next to me came running in. He looked at me and asked if I was running. I said nope, bike. He asked if I was doing the spinning class, said nope and asked him which race he was doing. It's always nice to meet a fellow racer. He is doing one in Westchester in May. Told him which one I am doing. I then got down on the bike and thankfully the hot guy was in front of me doing boxing class- ooohh more squat thrusts.

Yesterday mom IMs me that dad is going to be running for a seat in the county legislature this fall. She then told me that when he was a young pup and they had just moved to my hometown he ran for public office and apparently got his ass kicked. Thankfully he is not competitive and it has not been bugging him for almost 40 years. I asked what ticket, of course he is running as a Democrat. I hope he wins as it will give him something to do other than bug mom.

My younger brother apparently broke his foot over the weekend while playing with the family dog in his backyard. He probably needs a cast but because he is the stubborn one in the family he does not have one. I told him he should at least get an aircast. I also asked how do you drive and what drugs are you on. He said very carefully and percocet.

We had the Share-A-Thon last night. The highlight of the night was the hot bartender from last time was there. I went up to get a beer and of course had a dip in. He asked what I was dipping. I told him my usual which is Skoal Longcut Wintergreen, took my beer and sat down trying to get someone to help me recoup my cost for the beach house. I went up for another later and he told me asked me where I was from. I told him upstate. He said he didn't see to many people dipping. He apparently uses Kayak. I asked where he was from. He is from the Land of 10,000 Lakes- that's be Minnesota. I asked him what brought him to NYC. He's a model- of course. So the rest of the night I teased the husband that the corn fed model/bartender was hitting on me.

So the gilt 40 year auction failed. Gilts are U.K government bonds. In this credit environment any 40 year paper is going to be a tough sell but for the U.K. to have a bond auction fail does not bode well for credit markets in general. I wonder if we will see any of the many upcoming UST auctions fail and if you think it can't happen you need to think again.

So China thinks there should be a new reserve currency. Turbo Tax Timmy nearly agreed with them today. All of this makes me wonder if we are just repeating what the U.K. went through between WWI and WWII when we displaced them as the world reserve currency. The final nail in that coffin was WWII.

Mom and dad are in town. They got her this afternoon, walked the kids and made dinner for us. I hit the gym after work, lifted and did my short run. The husband did his long run outside. We then played cards. Tomorrow they are going into the city to the Irish Consulate so dad can get his Irish passport. He is allowed to because his mother is right of the boat. Once he gets it I will then be allowed to get mine which is pretty cool. We are going to take them out to dinner tomorrow night and play cards yest again. Mom and the husband are always partners in cards and dad and I are.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Friday's BSG finale was pretty frackin' great. We had the dvr set to record it since the husband was en route to L.A. for the weekend. I watched it solo though and loved it. Afterwards I had drinks with JP to catch up with him.

Saturday morning I slept in kind of late, walked the kids and then got House of the Dead 2 & 3 The Return ready. Mr. Clifford arrived around 12:30. I took the bus in to pick him up. I made him wait for me as I got my haircut at the barber shop near my workplace. I think I got the new kid who just got his barbers license. The kid took forever and finally the old guy yelled at him and finished my haircut. Mt. Clifford had texted me during it about not messing with Zohan.

We grabbed lunch at the diner one block away from the apartment. Then it was right to the Wii. We got our asses kicked. Nap time, we hit the gym- as Mr. Clifford put it to get a pump for the Black Party. After that is was dinner and another nap. We got up and headed down to the PATH. We got on a car with these three straight guys. They noticed I had a dip in and started chatting with me. We discussed the draw backs of Copenhagen and how it is too finely cut. Then one of them asked me if I was going home or going out because I had a bag with my outfit in it. I told them I am going out. They asked where, I told them the Black Party. They asked some more questions and I told them they should google it when they got home and were sober as they had clearly been drinking before going out for the night in the city.

We got to Ragnar's, changed into our costumes, had cocktails and then got a cab and went. There was a huge line and we though great. Ragnar and I walked to the front and were told if we had tickets already (which we did) we could go right in. Mr. Clifford was on the will call line so had to wait a bit longer.

The party was a blast. We spent most of the time out on the dance floor. Ragnar left about a hour before us. I actually saw quite a few people I knew. One of the coolest things was in the front they had all these reptiles. There was a case with these two large black scorpions. When the guy put the black light on them they turned fluorescent blue.

Thankfully Mr. Clifford had a watch and when I asked him what time it was he said 7:30- as in 7:30 AM. So we decided it was time to call it a night. We had no shirts so we had to buy the cheesy souvenir tee shirts. We walked out into the daylight, hailed a cab and went back to Ragnar's to pick up our clothes. Ragnar was asleep so we just grabbed them and then walked to the PATH. We got on and it was like that scene from Animal Hose when they walk into the bar and the music stops and everyone looks. The funniest was this little kid who looked like Chanco from Nacho Libre staring at us. We hopped into a cab and got home. I walked the kids, took a hot shower and then went to sleep. Woke up at 2:30ish, walked the kids again, watched some t.v. with Mr' Clifford then drove him into the city to catch his train back. I went to bed at 9 PM still exhausted.

I did not train this morning. Just wasn't feeling the love. I got a text from the husband around 5:40 telling me he had landed safely. He went right into the office.

The tape was on fire. All because the government gave us more details on the plan but they are still avoiding the elephant in the room which is how the price will be set.

I don't know how I missed this one but apparently if anyone decides to participate in TALF and buy the securities the government has them sign a contract. No big deal, right? Well one of the stipulations of the contract is the buyer cannot hire anyone who has a visa. The means Americans only, no foreign workers. That is a really dumb protectionist thing to do. Protectionism was one of the main causes of the Depression. Apparently we have forgotten those lessons.

We have the FI Share-A-Thon yet again tomorrow.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

They exercised their monopolistic powers

I did my long swim this morning for training. It was a pretty good swim and the best part was I was in there long enough that the cute guy in board shorts was back today and ended up swimming at he same time. I was silently critiquing his form- swimming form that is, not physical. His lower body is too low which leads me to believe he keeps his head to far up.

So The House passed a new tax at the rate of 90% on bonuses for any institution that took bail out money. I have several comments on this: This will effectively kill AIG, FNM, FRE as no on will want to work there if they know their earnings are limited. You will see a huge exodus of people from all of those firms. It will also hit all of the banks that took the money. I hope it applies to all the auto makers and auto parts suppliers as well but probably not because organized labor is part of the Democratic regime.

I was IMing with my brother about this situation. He couldn't understand where I was coming from with my indignation. It is real simple. The government knew all of this and got caught with their pants down and is now trying to blame it all on AIG etal. They hastily created this with out thinking through all the consequences and unintended consequences. These people had legally binding contracts. Yes contracts can be broken and re-written but the government did no due diligence. To do the bail out and then start changing the rules after the fact is complete bullshit. The are making this all up as they go along. The whole point of the rule of law is to protect people from the whims and flights of fancy of the government. I was stunned and actually said will wonders never cease when I read that Rep. Rangel said the U.S. tax code is not meant to be nor used as a political weapon.

It all comes down to the government has now made it law that they can garnishee any ones wages they think they need to. I don't remember who said it- probably some anarchist- but you need to remember the government has a monopoly on coercion and the use of force.

I have never liked Jay Leno. He is just not my type of humorist and he annoys me. President Obama is on his show tonight. I am a bit put off by a sitting President going on to a talk show to get his message out. It seems real j.v. to me.

I went to the gym tonight after work to get my short run in and lift. There were the usual hotties there and some new ones- none of the new ones merit names as of yet.

The husband is off to L.A. tomorrow after work for the weekend. Mr. Clifford is coming up Saturday. He gets here around lunch time. We'll have many hours to kill and I can only nap so much. So, I went and bought a two player shooter game for the Wii. House of the Dead 2 & 3 The Return. I also bought two Wii handguns.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

The 3% solution plan

This morning I had my short swim and as is usually the case as I was getting out of the pool in walks a cute guy in board shorts is walking in.

David Wright has some serious competition in the hot New York baseball players category. Brett Gardener and Xavier Nady of the Yankees are (as Mr. Barrett would say) very woofy. I also have to say that at time I find A-Rod kind of hot in a dirty way, actually more like the Moped fashion.

I have previously consigned Thomas Frank to the dustbin of self-loathing, leftist Americans. I may have to re-evaluate that belief after reading his editorial in the WSJ today. IT is worth a read if you have the time. Also you should read the Mean Street blog on the WSJ by Evan Newmark. Over in the NYT I saw the story about the guy who rescued a fellow strap hanger after he fell on the tracks and have to say the guy is cute but it is too bad he is an actor.

So early this morning I got a text message from my oldest. I was a bit taken aback as he should have been in school and they are not allowed to have their cell phones on during the school day. I asked him why he was not in school. He, his brother, mother and maternal grandmother were in Pennsylvania attending his maternal great-grandfather's funeral. I knew the gentleman was not doing well but I did not realize he was in that bad of shape. I told him to give his grandmother a hug for me. The boys were not close to their maternal great-grandfather but I think it could give them some pause for thought considering the ex' mother has ovarian cancer. I asked how he was doing and he said he was bored and asked if he could call me. I told him sure. He did not get a chance to though as the service began. I sent the ex a text telling her I was sorry. I will send her mom a note expressing my sympathy.

Speaking of notes, the husband and I have gotten old school since November. After our house warming party we actually received hand written thank you notes form some of our guests for hosting the party. We thought it was a great idea and since then we have sent hand written thank yous to friends who host us for dinner, etc. I sent DR and PF one and PF told me it was very thoughtful. He asked if the husband had written it and I said not because his hand writing is like chicken scratch, I wrote it. His next comment was he would have thought the husband had the better hand writing.

I think last night is proof the husband has fully become black Irish. We took a cab home and the driver was blabbing away in Spanish thinking neither of us spoke the language. The husband thought the guy was providing advice for the love lorn on some phone service.

So the FASB is dead it would seem to me. They have changed the rules regarding mark to market. No the marks can be determined by the holder. Basically we are no in the land of theoretical and/or imaginary values. It can change from quarter to quarter too it seems. So basically the S in FASB (which stands for Standards) is useless. As one co-worker said it gives the companies wide latitude when determining the value of certain holdings- which means it is no longer standard.

I feel bad for the current CEO of AIG. He got torn a new asshole today by a bunch of grandstanding politicians. The guy got stuck with a bunch of legally binding contracts. He followed the law and did what was contractually obligated. These politicians knew. Now they are arguing that contract law can be nullified by political fiat when ever it can suit their purposes. The whole basis of our Constitution is the rule of law and property rights. The kicker is also that FNM and FRE have similar retention packages and yet they politicians aren't that upset about it. Maybe it's because if you follow the money with those two it will lead back to the same politicians who instructed FNM and FRE to make sub-prime loans. OR it could have to do that a major advisor of President Obama's was the former CEO of FNM.

There was an FOMC meeting today in case you missed it. They couldn't lower rates so no one was expecting anything on that front. The big news is the Fed bit the bullet and is now in full, explicit quantitative easing mode- they are just printing as much money as the need. They announced they would buy up to $300 billion of U.S. Treasuries. It coincided nicely with the BOE governors voting out right to print $75 billion new pounds. They Brits were just more honest about it.

The Fed will now again be keeping the price of money artificially low- just like Greenspan did. That is what got us into trouble to begin with and they seem to think it can save us as well. Real simple; you print 300 billion new dollars that increases the supply of money. When supply goes up the price people are willing to pay, i.e. demand, goes down. That means the store of value the USD represents will go down. Get ready for inflation in a big way.

USTs dropped the most in over 35 years on the announcement. They had been perilously close to getting above 3%. the reason that is a big level is because many believe the Fed is purposefully keeping the 10yr at 3% or lower in order to keep mortgage rates down. Their reasoning is if mortgage rates stay low people will buy house which is the root of the problem. The catch is banks are tightening their lending standards. So it may not matter how low rates are if banks can't find qualified borrowers. Oh wait, FNM and FRE are nationalized and so are Shitigroup and BAC so the government will force them to lower standards to make mortgage loans- much like they did in the mid '90s. This is good how? More debt to solve the problem of too much debt?

North Korea is about to launch a missile- I mean rocket to deliver satellites. This is going to be a big test for President Obama.

Mom is on IM. I and the husband chat a lot with her during the day. This afternoon she informed me the house next door was apparently a huge drug dealing den that got busted this afternoon. There were two local police cars, six county sheriff cars and six unmarked law enforcement cars. It had to be like something out of Weeds or Breaking Bad. I told her I think it is time to sell the house and move.

We had dinner with TK tonight. The food was great, the company was great but the restaurant did not impress me. The music was so loud I could not hear a word TK and the husband said. I maybe getting old...

TK finally got a laptop and has discovered the joys of on-line hooking up. We toasted to munting. He has some good stories.